Kalshi #4: Auburn loses and all I do is win

Total Deposits: $300
Total Portfolio Value: $331.87
Total % Return: 10.6%

Despite getting out to an early lead, Auburn couldn't hang with Florida and so my NO shares for Auburn to win the tourney—purchased before the tourney began—paid out. Would have been less stressful if they got knocked out sooner but they were a #1 seed after all so it's not like I'm shocked they made it to the Final Four.

The real story of the night though was of course Houston upsetting Duke—no money on the line for that one, though.

Looking ahead

"The first rule of investing is don't lose. And the second rule of investing is don't forget the first rule." - Warren Buffett

I've been doing this for one month and my ROI is already over 10%. In my Kalshi "intro" post I discussed my preference for benchmarking my Kalshi portfolio against the stock market, rather than take big-swing, roulette table type approach that all indebted gamblers seem to take. The goal is to set up a stream of continuous low-risk bets in markets with advantageous odds that produce a sustainable return over time.

As it turns out, the timing of this preference was apt because this past week, due to Trump's idiotic tariffs, the stock market plunged 10%—the worst single stock market week since covid. So, by being up 10% in my Kalshi portfolio, I am already outperforming the stock market by 20%—and I'm only one month in.

I do have a slight issue now, though, where over the past few weeks, despite looking every other day or so, I haven't seen any betting markets that look really enticing. I wish I had a place to confidently deploy my $200 in cash but I don't yet. This said, I'm not overly worried because I was able to find 5 markets to participate in in March, so I think it's only a matter of time before something good pops up this month. I can't force myself to rush into anything though—this would violate Buffett's rule above.

There are definitely markets that fall under the "I could probably find an edge here in if I had the time" category, but I'm super busy these days and don't have time to spend hours researching niche politics and/or reading movie reviews. For example, the Kalshi gambler who goes by the moniker Gaeten Dugas (lol) had carved out a nice racket by scouring the internet for advanced movie reviews and betting on their likely Rotten Tomatoes scores.

Here is some screenshot evidence of where I stand currently. I'll give another update next time I make a meaningful move.